The Chinese Economy: Transitions and Growth pdf

The Chinese Economy: Transitions and Growth by Barry Naughton

The Chinese Economy: Transitions and Growth Barry Naughton ebook
Publisher:
Format: pdf
ISBN: 0262140950, 9781429455343
Page: 504

The medium-term growth projections for China and the United States, 5.5 and. GDP growth rates, beginning in the middle of 2011, began to falter. Presidential election cycle and China's once-in-a-decade leadership transition left both leaderships struggling to sustain momentum in the relationship in the face of powerful forces drawing their respective gazes inward. One consequence of the ensuing drift in the Likewise, the Chinese system is showing the limitations of the current economic growth model that has propelled its steady rise. But when we take a longer-term view, a transition to a multi-party political system in China is a foregone conclusion. The CCP is undergoing a pivotal once-in-a-decade power transition that will see its fifth generation of leaders set the future agenda for the second-largest economy in the world. The diminishing advantage of low-cost factors and the declining FDI in China indicates that both the country's current export model and its mode of economic growth are at a turning point. Placing the volume in context, the preface pays homage to previous books that have focused on China, notably Barry Naughton's The Chinese Economy: Transitions and Growth. That conclusion is supported by two key factors which suggest that China's transition from high trend growth to lower trend growth is probably already underway. The Chinese economy is undergoing a massive transition. While the country has maintained a political monopoly since its founding, the effects of China's rapid economic growth have triggered increasing social unrest and political destabilization that challenges the country's rise as a global power. Tions in Subramanian (2011) that illustrated likely Chinese economic dominance, were not predicated on surging Chinese growth and collapsing American growth. Although one-party regimes are the most sophisticated and durable authoritarian system in our times, such If economic growth in China continues, even at 5 percent, for the next twenty years, per capita income in China will reach $20,000 dollars in PPP. The country is trying to diversify its economic growth engine from purely exports to an increasingly domestic-oriented economy. McKinsey Quarterly (January 2013): China's economy is starting its historic shift to a more consumption- and service-driven model that should help sustain the country's growth, albeit at a slower rate, over the next decade and beyond. To make matters worse, this leadership transition was occurring while the Chinese economy stumbled. The speed of economic growth (as well as the shape) will influence multiple investment trends over coming years including the growth rate of many other emerging markets which export to China; global commodity demand growth; the sales growth rate of European and US luxury goods and cars; and the .